{"id":887,"date":"2015-08-10T11:26:52","date_gmt":"2015-08-10T09:26:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/urvaken.wordpress.com\/?p=887"},"modified":"2015-08-10T11:26:52","modified_gmt":"2015-08-10T09:26:52","slug":"12-timmars-forvarning-innan-shtf-prepperse","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/2015\/08\/10\/12-timmars-forvarning-innan-shtf-prepperse\/","title":{"rendered":"12 timmars f\u00f6rvarning innan SHTF #prepperSE"},"content":{"rendered":"

Brittiska regeringens Department for Business Innovation & Skills sl\u00e4ppte i juli 2015 en rapport kallad Space Weather Preparedness Strategy<\/a>. Detta \u00e4r mycket intressant l\u00e4sning och handlar till st\u00f6rsta delen om f\u00f6rberedelser f\u00f6r och konsekvenser av en s\u00e5 kallad CME (Coronal Mass Ejection, Soleruption p\u00e5 svenska). Jag har tidigare skrivit om soleruptioner<\/a> h\u00e4r p\u00e5 bloggen.
\nI rapporten finns bland annat f\u00f6ljande att l\u00e4sa (min emfas):
\n

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Bild fr\u00e5n NASA\/ESA SOHO<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n

The main impact on the UK is assessed to be from a Coronal Mass Ejection. Most Coronal Mass Ejections are not emitted in the direction of Earth. Those that are typically take 1-3 days to reach us, and we can predict the arrival time to within about 6 hours. Predictions are currently less accurate due to degradation in the satellite capability available to forecasters. Generally speaking, the faster the ejection, the greater the potential impacts. The Carrington Event, for example, travelled to Earth in as little as 18 hours. It is therefore likely that our reasonable worst case scenario would only allow us 12 hours from observation to impact.<\/strong><\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Vi kan allts\u00e5 bara 12 timmar innan eruptionen tr\u00e4ffar jorden med s\u00e4kerhet s\u00e4ga att den kommer att tr\u00e4ffa och med vilken kraft. Vid sj\u00e4lva utbrottet vid solen kan vi g\u00f6ra kvalificerade gissningar och prognoser. Dessa har dock historiskt visat att det \u00e4r mycket sv\u00e5rt att bed\u00f6ma riktning, styrka och hastighet vilket \u00e4r helt avg\u00f6rande f\u00f6r att kunna f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5 konsekvenserna p\u00e5 jorden.
\nVidare tar rapporten upp vad riskerna och konsekvenserna \u00e4r n\u00e4r jorden tr\u00e4ffas av en soleruption (\u00e5terigen min emfas):<\/p>\n

Once the Coronal Mass Ejection reaches the ground, it can take two to three hours for a geomagnetic storm to develop. This short timescale presents challenges for operators of infrastructure at risk from space weather. The biggest area of risk for a Coronal Mass Ejection impacting the Earth is the electricity power grid. Geomagnetically induced currents created from rapid variations in the electrical field during an extreme event can cause power outages<\/strong>.<\/em>
\n[…]
\nThere have been a number of recorded severe space weather events over the last two centuries. But the advancement of technology and the increases in interdependence of some systems means that infrastructure has become more vulnerable to its impacts in last few decades<\/strong>.<\/em>
\n[…]
\nOf the 13 transformers which could be damaged, it is estimated that only two substations \u2013 most likely in more coastal\/rural parts of the country \u2013 could experience damage to the extent that they were not be able to provide local power supplies. In these areas people might face two to four months of disruption to power supplies and be subject to rota disconnection while the transformers are replaced<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

F\u00f6r att sammanfatta s\u00e5 har vi 12 timmars f\u00f6rvarning och konsekvenserna kan bli att m\u00e4nniskor i vissa omr\u00e5den kan bli str\u00f6ml\u00f6sa i mellan tv\u00e5 till fyra m\u00e5nader. Dessutom har infrastrukturen blivit mer s\u00e5rbar den senaste tiden.
\nHur stor \u00e4r d\u00e5 sannolikheten att detta kan h\u00e4nda? Svaret<\/a> \u00e4r 12%<\/a> innan \u00e5r 2020<\/a>. En av \u00e5tta.
\n

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Bild fr\u00e5n NASA\/ESA SOHO<\/p><\/div><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Brittiska regeringens Department for Business Innovation & Skills sl\u00e4ppte i juli 2015 en rapport kallad Space Weather Preparedness Strategy. Detta \u00e4r mycket intressant l\u00e4sning och handlar till st\u00f6rsta delen om f\u00f6rberedelser f\u00f6r och konsekvenser av en s\u00e5 kallad CME (Coronal… Continue Reading →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advanced_seo_description":"","jetpack_seo_html_title":"","jetpack_seo_noindex":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[89,155,159,274,789,793,821],"class_list":["post-887","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-shtf","tag-beredskap","tag-cme","tag-coronal-mass-ejection","tag-forvarning","tag-soleruption","tag-solstorm","tag-stromavbrott"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=887"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/887\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/urvaken.se\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}